From Foundry LabsSports
Numbers-driven research on sport, starting with the NBL: leads, streaks, home court, shots and players, from the data behind NBL Tracker.
Basketball is a personal interest of Mark’s. Here the research tests the method on a new set of data.
NBL
Australia's National Basketball League: every game since 1979 and every play since 2015-16.
The Momentum Myth: Leads, Streaks and Timeouts in the NBL
A ten-point half-time lead still loses one time in eight, shooters do not get hot, and a timeout adds almost nothing to a run.
The Vanishing Edge: Home Court and the Schedule in the NBL
Home court was worth 4.5 points a game for forty years and is worth about 2 now. The back-to-back is gone, and travel barely matters.
Good Shots Are Table Stakes: Shot Quality and Shot-Making in the NBL
The midrange has halved and every team takes similar shots. What separates them is making shots, and that does not last.
Who Really Moves the NBL Scoreboard: Player Impact, Ageing and Imports
Only 28 of 159 players can be told apart from average. Imports produce more per minute, but two in three leave within a year.